In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield experienced notable fluctuations, influenced by a combination of economic indicators and market sentiments.

As of March 2025, the yield stood at approximately 4.27%, reflecting a decrease from earlier in the year. This decline is primarily attributed to heightened concerns over a potential U.S. recession, which have overshadowed inflation fears and led to downward revisions in Treasury yield forecasts. The new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is focused on getting the 10-year Treasury rate down to around 4% by summer. This will be a key catalyst to growth in the construction and manufacturing sectors.