Nonferrous metal prices continue to face significant volatility going into 2025.

Slowing global demand is expected to cap the upside risk to prices over the next year, while tight supply of mined material and prices for many metals approaching the cost of production will limit the downside. Mainland China remains the key market to watch in terms of leading indicators for demand and pricing.

The outlook for aluminum remains mostly unchanged and offers an attractive buying opportunity for the remainder of 2024 and through 2025. Prices for the fourth quarter of 2024 are pegged at $2,403/metric ton — up 1.0% from the third quarter.

Copper prices have come down significantly after reaching a new record high in the second quarter but remain elevated compared with the downturn seen in most other commodities and compared with the global average cost of production.

Construction steel prices are expected to remain weak for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. North America is the only place where prices have some downside left and will keep falling until the end of the year, with price hikes expected in early 2025.