U.S. Annual Energy Prices

Gasoline prices have continued to fall owing to seasonally weak winter demand and the prevalence of cheaper blends.

Diesel prices have the opposite seasonal effect and cracks — the difference between crude and diesel prices — remain elevated during winter. A delayed start to Nigeria’s Dangote refinery will continue to put pressure on refined product balances for 2024. The buying advice for the first quarter is to lock in gasoline prices while waiting on diesel prices.

The US natural gas forecast has been revised upwards over the course of the year. The fourth quarter of 2023 averaged just under $3/MMBtu before the first quarter of 2024 posts prices around $3.50/MMBtu. Thereafter, prices decline for the summer before additional export capacity sends prices increasing from the end of 2024 onward. US natural gas prices experienced considerable increases over the last few months of 2023, with daily prices occasionally exceeding $3.50/MMBtu. Record gas burns in the power sector since late June have reduced inventories dramatically, but they remain significantly above the five-year average. Low gas prices, coal-fired generation retirements, and warmer weather have supported the strong gas burns. Ultimately, however, strong production will leave the US well-stocked for the winter withdrawal season.

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