Ocean freight is currently facing worsening congestion and spiking rates as Red Sea diversions coincide with an early peak season arrival.

Worsening ocean conditions would drive more volumes to air cargo, while the ongoing surge in B2C e-commerce air cargo volumes – though possibly facing regulatory challenges – is already putting pressure on capacity and rates. So far, hubs in North Europe and North America are not seeing Red Sea-driven vessel bunching or congestion, with the recent, but falling, backlogs at the ports of Savannah and Charleston attributed to slowdowns from infrastructure projects and software problems. In addition, the US Customs and Border Patrol have now increased reporting requirements and the rate of inspections for de minimis exemption imports. These steps reportedly led to congestion at LAX in June – a major hub for e-commerce imports from China – and canceled flights and shipments as exporters adjust to the new standards.