Global Growth Forecasts

Global growth forecasts for the year have been revised upwards, from 2.3% to 2.4%.

We are now four years removed from the start of the pandemic and its subsequent disruptions to supply chains, and this has broadly given companies enough time to adapt to these changes. Current forecasts cite key risks – mainly the escalation of any of the ongoing conflicts in the world – that could upend the global economy. We continue to forecast “technical” recessions across many parts of Western Europe during the first part of 2024, including the eurozone and the UK. The Bank of England’s latest analysis of UK economic prospects has emphasized that the full effects of tighter financial conditions are yet to be felt.

Growth prospects here in the US are set to increase moderately over the coming year as the economy has proven surprisingly resilient. Higher wages have pushed growth in the labor force and driven consumer spending.  The Federal Reserve, for its part, has held firm in its stance towards interest rates – keeping them high for now but hinting that they’ll cut them sometime this year. More of the same is expected during 2024 as tighter financial conditions work through the economy.

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