Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the leading indicator of economic activity within a country, which tracks the sum of all final goods and services that change hands within its borders in a given period of time.

Data for the third quarter of 2022 show that GDP grew by around 0.6%, defying expectations. This trend puts the overall economy to grow by about 0.2% over 2022, with another 0.4% next year.

GDP is not the only indicator of economic performance. Economists look at everything from unemployment to consumer spending to the number of cranes in the sky to hint at how the economy is doing. These indicators typically move in the same direction, but now they are all telling different stories. Both unemployment and consumer spending remain strong, and the number of cranes in the sky has seen some growth, so we do not think that there will be a recession, at least in the next six months.

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