Real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the first half of this year, and the real GDP growth for Q3 2024 was 2.5%.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a measure of private domestic demand, grew at a solid 2.8% annualized pace in the first half of the year. The upgrade to real GDP growth in Q3 largely reflects evidence of stronger consumer spending, increased after-tax income, and higher savings among US households, as well as a healthy labor market that continues to support consumption. Additionally, an influx of imports in anticipation of the East- and Gulf-Coast port strike likely boosted inventories, offsetting some of the expected net exports drag. We expect real US GDP growth to slow from above-trend growth this year to below-trend in 2025, with a 1.8% annual growth.