Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the leading indicator of economic activity within a country, which tracks the sum of all final goods and services that change hands within its borders in a given period of time.

Data for the third quarter of 2023 show that GDP grew by around 1.8 % on June 15, down from 2.2 %on June 8. We forecast annual GDP growth for 2023 around 0.5% and 1.6% for the year of 2024.

The U.S. economy is expected to continue to soften despite a healthy labor market, falling energy prices, and supply chain improvements. Stubborn inflation combined with rising consumer financial stress and tightening regulations in response to high-profile bank failures will add to financial sector woes. The growth of real GDP is expected to be tempered in 2023 by declines in home building and inventory investment. It is, fortunately, projected to rebound in the coming years as the growth of investment and exports increases as a result of lower interest rates, faster economic growth abroad, and a weaker dollar.

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