Unemployment rates in the Gulf Coast region are low but are expected to rise as fiscal stimulus unwinds and high interest rates weigh on economic activity.

The unemployment rate there will increase from an average of 3.6% in 2024 to 4.8% in 2027. For the Midwest, regional unemployment rates will rise gradually from 3.6% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2026. Wisconsin, Indiana, and Minnesota currently have the tightest labor markets, with unemployment rates at or below 3.0%. As of April, California currently has the highest unemployment rate in the country at 5.3%. By comparison, unemployment in Arizona is low at 3.6%. Construction is underway at two TSMC semiconductor factories in Arizona with a third recently

announced; the opening of the first factory has been delayed to 2025. West North Central continues to have one of the tightest labor markets, meaning any major project has an immediate impact on the regional construction labor market. Pressures are beginning to ease with the regional unemployment rate rising from a low of 2.5% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, but employers will continue to struggle with worker availability under these conditions.