We expect the unemployment rate to average 4.1% in 2024, 4.3% in 2025, and 4.2% for both 2026 and 2027.

On the employment front, we have slightly lowered our expectations for the next three quarters compared with our previous report. Monthly job gains are expected to steadily decrease from 143,900 in the current quarter to 116,200 in the second quarter of 2025. However, in the third quarter of 2025, our team expects monthly job gains to rebound to 145,800. Overall, annual average projections for nonfarm payroll employment decreased from a monthly rate of 210,100 in 2024 to 130,000 in 2025, both lower than those in the previous survey.