The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to increase from 3.6 % at the end of last year to 5.1 % at the end of 2023 before gradually declining to 4.5 % by the end of 2027.

There are a few signs that the labor market is softening, which indicates that the impact of rate increases is beginning to be felt across the economy. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly one hundred million workers voluntarily left their job over the past two years. However, this January, the level of resignations came in under four million for the first time since May 2021. January also saw an uptick in the number of workers who were laid off: 1.7 million, the highest number since early 2020 when the covid-19 pandemic forced millions out of the workforce. Increasing layoffs in February and March would indicate that the demand for labor is falling, which puts workers in a worse position to negotiate pay and benefits with future employers. All of these indicators point towards a softening in the labor market that the Federal Reserve hopes will decrease aggregate demand among consumers and lead to a fall in prices.

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